With 50 days until Election Day, many are wondering if Democrats will sweep the House and Senate — some question whether there will be a blue wave, others want to know how big it will be.
Engaged voters are asking whether their fellow Americans will refuse to support Donald Trump’s enablers — namely, Republicans in Congress — and put the power back in the hands of those who represent the people. Will the man some see as standing behind the greatest threat to democracy lose his power base, and face congressional investigations, and possible impeachment?
“Saying this is the most important election in our lives is an understatement,” SiriusXM’s Dean Obeidallah said on Monday. “This is the most important election in the life of our Republic. Our freedoms and our democracy hang in the balance!”
The Washington Post on Sunday highlighted the “new threat election officials fear: Trump’s federal government.”
The paper noted that “officials across the nation are preparing for the possibility that the most serious risks may come from President Donald Trump, his agencies and allies — including many now in power at the federal, state and local levels. Election officials are contemplating ideas that once sounded outlandish, such as troops seizing voting machines, the president dictating last-minute election rules or rogue officials blocking the certification of results.”
So, when it comes to voting and getting voters to the polls, some believe it is time to pull out all the stops. Pick up the phone, call all your friends and family members to make certain they vote on November 3. Advocate on social media. Do everything possible to get voters to the polls — which in some states open in a matter of days.
They’re not wrong.
“50 days to flip the House,” reminds DNC Chair Ken Martin. “50 days to take back the Senate. 50 days to win up and down the ballot. Let’s do this.”
Meanwhile, some experts believe the die has already been cast.
Noted political scientist and political analyst Larry Sabato, founder and director of the University of Virginia Center for Politics, falls into that group.
“50 days til Nov 3,” he writes. “Keep in mind that most of what happens now doesn’t matter a whit. Operatives and media whose jobs are to exaggerate every jot and tittle will insist otherwise. Yet the path is basically set.”
Others are pushing back.
“Not sure I agree with that,” says Alicia Strohl Resnicoff, a former assistant U.S. attorney and co-founder of Invest to Elect Illinois. “There are uncommitted voters to consolidate and they can swing an election. Look at the Wisconsin [gubernatorial] primary. Hong’s numbers were relatively the same, but Crawford won because, in the last two weeks, he consolidated the undecided voters and motivated older voters to get to the polls.”
They’re both right — it’s a question of degrees and percentage points.
Republicans Are at a Disadvantage
MeidasTouch Chief Washington Correspondent Scott MacFarlane notes that “a series of new polls and forecasts have bleak warning signs for some GOP incumbents.”
Texas Democratic nominee for the U.S. Senate James Talarico on Monday saw his race become ranked as “tilt D” by VoteHub, a major nonpartisan analysis group.
Newsweek now gives Democrats a “narrow but plausible path to flipping the Senate majority as Trump’s approval remains low amid economic concerns.”
David C. Barker at Brookings last week predicted that “Democrats are positioned to gain around 25-30 House seats,” which he called “short of a landslide but enough to deliver a significant rebuke of Trump’s second term.”
What Does All This Mean?
In short, Donald Trump will become a lame duck — even if Democrats take back the House and not the Senate (currently the more likely scenario, as Newsweek suggested). Despite being constitutionally prohibited from running for a third term, his ability to get legislation passed and subpoenas blocked will likely narrow.
Americans will see massive congressional investigations and hearings, coupled with waves of subpoenas.
Trump will still control the executive branch, but it’s not unreasonable to expect a mass exodus of top officials desperate to save their careers.
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