Harry Enten on Wednesday laid out devastating numbers for President Donald Trump’s standing with the voting bloc the CNN senior data analyst says determines the outcome of elections: pure independent voters.
Trump won pure independents by 15 points in 2024, according to Enten’s average of two validated voter surveys.
“Look at his net approval rating now with pure independents, those who don’t lean towards either the Democratic or Republican Party,” Enten said. “It’s negative 71 points. I mean, these are the deep depths of the ocean. You never see numbers like these.”
“This is an 86-point shift away from the president of the United States, with the group that ultimately really does determine elections,” he continued. “As pure independents go, usually so goes the nation, and right now, Donald Trump is at a depth that truly you rarely ever see.”
It gets worse for Trump and the GOP.
The president, Enten explained, has seen a 99-point shift away from him among pure independents on the economy. In 2024, those voters trusted Trump over Kamala Harris on the economy by 22 points.
“Except what if you ask pure independence about Donald Trump and the economy?” Enten said. “Okay, look at this. This is a 99-point shift. What are we talking about? Pure independents, Trump on the economy.”
“That’s why pure independent voters decided to vote for Donald Trump and put him back in the White House for a second term,” Enten said.
And it gets worse still.
“What is driving these numbers to the deep depths of hell, as far as you’re concerned, if you’re a Republican, you’re running for re-election this fall?” he asked. “It’s gas prices.”
Among pure independents, Enten explained, just 8 percent approve of Trump’s performance on the price of gas.
“Ninety-two percent of pure independents disapprove of Donald Trump on gas prices,” he noted. “We have seen this disapproval rating hitting record levels with the electorate overall.”
“When you get 8 percent of folks agreeing on something, that is below the percentage of the Americans who actually think the moon landing was fake,” he said.
Enten said Republicans’ odds of holding the Senate have dropped as gas prices have climbed. “As those gas prices have gone one way, those chances for Republicans holding on to the United States Senate have gone the other way,” he said, adding pure independents are driving the shift with “92 percent near uniformity.”
The prediction markets back Enten up.
“The Election Betting Odds tracker, which consolidates numbers from popular prediction markets, shows that bookmakers now believe Democrats have a 63.8% chance of taking control of the Senate,” Forbes reported on Wednesday. “Bookmakers also peg Democrats as massive favorites to retake control of the House of Representatives, with consolidated odds at 89%.”
The Economist’s forecast shows the same trend.
“Dems keep rising in our Senate forecast, now up to 62% chance of winning control,” writes The Economist’s Owen Winter, who points to the outlet’s prediction model: “A friendly map may not be enough for Republicans to hold the Senate.”
The election is 41 days away, with early voting in some states already underway. We have a president who recently told his base to “cheat like hell.” Just barely winning the House and the Senate will not be enough: This election comes down to margins. Vote.
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