CNN senior data analyst Harry Enten has good news for Democrats losing sleep over Senate polling averages and wondering if they should be believed. In close Senate races during Trump-era midterms, Democrats beat their final poll averages more often than Republicans did.
“In midterms during the Trump era, in fact, what we see in those close Senate races, Democrats are actually more likely to beat their final poll averages than Republicans are,” Enten said on Monday (video below).
“Look at this, in 2018, in 57% of the races Democrats actually beat the final polling averages,” he said. “That’s more than Republicans. What about in 2022? 100% of the races Democrats beat their final Senate poll averages.”
Enten said he set out to test a common assumption: polls underestimate Republicans.
“You know, I think there’s this whole idea out there,” he explained. “You know what, the polling, it always underestimates the Republicans. You know what I actually decided to do? I decided to go into the spreadsheets and see, is that actually true?”
“Which party beat their final Senate poll averages, close races since 1998?” he asked. “You know what, the party that more frequently actually beat their final polling averages in the United States Senate? 54% of the time, it was Democrats who beat their final poll averages versus 46% of the time, it was Republicans.”
“So there is, in fact, over the long term, no real sign that there is a systematic bias against Republicans in the polling,” he concluded.
“Republicans are the ones who have to beat their polling averages, and history says, you know what, you shouldn’t count on that, because Democrats have actually been the ones more likely to do so in midterms during the Trump era.”
Forecasters agree Democrats hold the edge, though by varying margins. The Economist’s model puts the party’s odds of flipping the Senate at 56%.
“Democrats’ probability of flipping the Senate fell to 56%, down from 58% yesterday and 62% on October 10th,” The Economist reported Monday. “The party’s polling leads have narrowed in Texas and Michigan, and its fundraising advantage in Alaska has also shrunk slightly. Although betting markets and all public forecasting models still favour Democrats in the upper chamber, our model is now the least confident in their chances.”
Decision Desk HQ reports “Democrats have a 57% chance of flipping the Senate.”
“Democrats need to flip four seats; they lead in five (Alaska, Maine, North Carolina, Ohio, and Texas) in our forecast,” they note.
Bottom line: Election Day is one week from tomorrow. Many states offer early voting. Vote.
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